Crisis Group interviews, Arab and Kurdish parliamentarians, Baghdad, July 2019. Au cours du débat présidentiel de mardi dernier, le président Donald Trump a averti qu'il n'accepterait pas un résultat électoral basé sur les bulletins de vote par correspondance qui, selon lui, sont frauduleux. One year into its tenure, the Abdul-Mahdi government took steps to return to this model. In addition, both have relied heavily on U.S. support since the start of Operation Provide Comfort in 1991. In 2005, Iraq plunged into a sectarian war which did not subside until three years later. « Comment raconter les dix dernières années ?, s’interroge un romancier qui justement s’y essaie. L'EXPRESSION DE LA LIBRE ANALYSE 09 h 38, le 24 août 2019 Tant que c'est pas fini, c'est pas encore fini. Prime Minister Nouri al-Maliki brutally cracked down on the protests. Research was carried out in Kirkuk, Baghdad, Erbil and Suleimaniya in March, July, September and November 2019, involving more than 50 interviews with policymakers, legislators, security officials, civil society representatives, diplomats and residents of Kirkuk. The rotation system, by which each community would hold the respective positions for two-year periods, has been suggested in successive UNAMI-led negotiations over the years, but it invariably meets with stiff resistance from Kurdish politicians. Local Arabs accused the U.S. of favouring the Kurds, while the Kurds expressed suspicions about the loyalties of the army commander, who had served in Iraq’s army during Saddam Hussein’s rule. On the international level, Iraq’s territorial integrity is of great concern to Iran and Turkey, which struggle with secessionist demands in their respective Kurdish regions. تشمل هذه القوات الجيش، والشرطة الاتحادية وقوات الحشد الشعبي، إضافة إلى الشرطة المحلية. The law is not clear on alternative means of instating governors.Hide Footnote  This manoeuvre, however, would have required the return of Kirkuk Brotherhood council members to Kirkuk. Vos avantages abonné. Le 18-09-2019, un jugement d'ouverture de liquidation judiciaire simplifiée de Liraka Concept à Osny (Val-d'Oise) a été prononcé. The U.S.-led anti-ISIS coalition has tried to bring the two forces together in operations along the border between Erbil’s Makhmour district and Kirkuk’s Dibis district, but by October 2019 they had conducted only one joint mission. Crisis Group interviews, Erbil, Kirkuk and Beirut, 2017.Hide Footnote  Even the ruling Barzani family, heirs of the KDP legacy, was internally divided over the wisdom of proceeding with the poll, especially including the disputed territories, although none objected publicly. The main Arab tribes in Kirkuk are the Jubour and Obeid, as well as the Hamdan.Hide Footnote  In instances where Kurdish representatives fled or were otherwise absent, the acting governor appointed or approved Arab counterparts to replace them. Chloe Cornish, “The tragedy of Iraq’s Sunnis”, IRIN News, 16 September 2015. [fn]Due to the spillover of ISIS activity from Hawija into Makhmour and vice versa, the security committee charged by the prime minister with mapping security gaps in the disputed territories joined Kirkuk governorate and Makhmour district into a single area of operations for military purposes. Crisis Group could not verify if these attacks were indeed non-lethal. The Turkmen 52nd brigade was formed in response to Grand Ayatollah Ali al-Sistani’s June 2014 fatwa calling for volunteers to counter the ISIS threat. The KRG chancellor is the head of the Kurdistan Region Security Council. Mais si on considère que leur but à toujours été d’entretenir le désordre dans une région qu’ils savant ne pas pouvoir contrôler, alors tout devient plus clair. ISIS has perpetrated few attacks in main population centres. Further muddling the picture is the involvement of security forces, particularly the Hashd, in matters outside their bailiwick. “Kirkuk oil smuggling rings thrive amidst corruption”. [fn]Crisis Group interviews, local police, PUK and KDP Asayish officials, Erbil and Kirkuk, September 2019.Hide Footnote  The Asayish had the advantages of a broader mandate, better training and more funding than local police; many Kirkukis of all ethnicities thus reported incidents to the Asayish instead of the police. [fn]Crisis Group interview, official in prime minister’s office, Baghdad, July 2019.Hide Footnote  A June 2019 agreement between Baghdad and Erbil to replace the federal police with the Iraqi army has yet to be implemented. Security forces and political parties are all involved, my own party [the PUK] included. The Brotherhood has stayed away because the KDP continues to condition its return to Kirkuk on withdrawal of federal forces from the governorate’s towns and what it calls “normalisation” of the security situation. A similar challenge would arise if the KDP Asayish were to come back to Kirkuk. Only two weeks before, on 25 September, the KRG had held a referendum on independence for the Kurdish region, a vote in which it had included the disputed territories. [fn]Arab and Turkmen representatives have consistently expressed concern that a Kurdish governor, such as Najmaldin Karim, would be susceptible to pressure from the PUK and/or KDP. [fn]Maria Lasa Aresti, Oil and Gas Revenue Sharing in Iraq, Natural Resources Governance Institute, July 2016.Hide Footnote  In addition, Baghdad fears that scenarios in which Kirkuk is either incorporated into the Kurdistan region or granted autonomy might cascade into other Iraqi governorates demanding similar special status. Two and a half years after the October 2017 events, the governorate still has only an acting governor. [fn]Crisis Group interviews, landowners, shopkeepers, businessmen and government employees, Kirkuk, March and July 2019.Hide Footnote. Crisis Group interviews, KDP and PUK provincial council members and MPs, Baghdad and Kirkuk, July 2019. Arab, Kurdish and Turkmen alike, Sunni Kirkukis are suspicious of federal institutions such as the federal police and the Hashd, which are predominantly Shiite. Crisis Group interview, Hussein Ali Najm, 56th Hashd brigade commander, Hawija, 31 March 2019.Hide Footnote  This claim appears credible, and is backed by similar complaints in other governorates. Crisis Group interview, KDP politburo member, Erbil, July 2019. [fn]Crisis Group interviews, CTS, local police and federal police officials, Kirkuk, March and July 2019.Hide Footnote  There have also been attacks upon security forces by unknown perpetrators. [fn]Some of these detention cases go back as far as 2003. This security set-up is potentially dangerous to public safety for three main reasons. The Turkmen are split along sectarian lines (parties such as the Iraqi Turkmen Front, which is predominantly Sunni or secular Shiite, rely heavily on Turkish support, while Shiite Islamist parties are linked to the Baghdad government, the Hashd and, in some cases, Iran). es, mesure d’audience anonymisée, envoi des notifications push, suivi des pannes, mise en avant de nos services : ces outils sont nécessaires au suivi de l’activité de nos services et à leur bon fonctionnement. LONDRES (Reuters) - L'Irak a suspendu la licence de Reuters après la publication par l'agence de presse d'un article faisant état d'un nombre de cas confirmés au coronavirus plus important que le chiffre officiellement annoncé. Depuis 2003, les violences et les discriminations à leur encontre ont poussé nombre d’entre eux à prendre, la mort dans l’âme, le chemin de l’exil. 1. Crisis Group interviews, local police, PUK and KDP Asayish officials, Erbil and Kirkuk, September 2019. All three communities have ties with outside actors, be it the federal government or the KRG, but also foreign powers such as Turkey, Iran and the U.S. Such incidents among the CTS, federal police and Hashd occur on a near-weekly basis. [fn]Crisis Group interview, Hawija mayor, Hawija, March 2019. [fn]Crisis Group interviews, Arab and Turkmen parliamentarians, Baghdad, July 2019.Hide Footnote. Somebody whi is disrespectful, ignorant and cocky, usually good at sport and is competitive most of the time, but can be arrogant. In a situation like this, who would you choose to deal with? [fn]In February 2019, Prime Minister Adel Abdul-Mahdi shifted the head of the command from the CTS to the special forces 61st brigade and appointed Lieutenant General Saad Harbiye as overall commander.Hide Footnote  From the outset, the JFC-K included the army, federal police and Hashd, as well as local police. To overcome this challenge, Baghdad and Erbil should work together to ensure that security forces in Kirkuk respond to a single command, the JFC-K. [fn]Crisis Group interview, enlisted KDP member of the Asayish, Kirkuk, September 2019. [fn]In 2013, Turkey started transferring proceeds from the sale of Iraqi oil directly to the KRG. Sous mandat britannique depuis 1920, l’Irak devient indépendant en 1932. Crisis Group interviews, Kirkuk politicians, Baghdad and Kirkuk, July 2019.Hide Footnote  Yet, while fighting between themselves over candidates, the Kurdish parties have also listened to Arab and Turkmen demands that a Kurdish candidate should at least be politically non-affiliated. Crisis Group interview, director at the peshmerga affairs ministry, Erbil, July 2019. A former Turkmen provincial council member explained that excluding the KDP would be counterproductive, as it would encourage the party to spoil the political process in Kirkuk either directly or through its alliances with powers in Baghdad. The 2020 budget, which is awaiting a new government, may therefore turn out to be less advantageous to the Kurdish region.Hide Footnote. A more ambitious – and perhaps better – option emerged in UNAMI-led talks over the past year: to form a 6,000-10,000-strong locally recruited multi-ethnic force to supplement the proposed joint army-peshmerga security mechanism. He said he was aware of only one attempt to mediate local disputes, conducted by Sanad, an Iraqi organisation, but it was not sustained. Recovery would require a more sustainable revenue-sharing deal with Baghdad, long the focus of efforts by the KDP’s Nechirvan Barzani (now the KRG’s president) when he was KRG prime minister (2006-2009 and 2012-2019). Le secteur privé devrait être invité mardi à prendre sa part dans le chantier titanesque de reconstruction de l'Irak dévasté par les guerres, un "marché" de plusieurs dizaines de milliards de dollars sur lequel se penche une conférence internationale à Koweït. Baghdad should also consider limiting its military presence in urban areas where possible, especially in Kirkuk city, and placing bases and headquarters just outside the district centre, while gradually transferring security responsibilities to the local police. Le président français Emmanuel Macron s'est engagé mercredi à soutenir l'Irak et a déclaré que les principaux défis auxquels le pays est confronté sont... France Nouvelles. We have lived here for generations. The Arabs, who are predominantly Sunni, are divided by tribal loyalties and between an urban minority that has lived in Kirkuk for generations and the rural majority in Hawija and parts of Dibis districts. Nonetheless, the security imbalance in Kirkuk persists and will remain a driver of instability if it goes unaddressed. And the (predominantly Sunni) population at large harbours fears of Shiite dominance of Iraq’s post-2003 political scene. [fn]The peshmerga have been undergoing a KRG-led unification process for years, with mixed success. Soit quinze ans de revenus pétroliers. When ISIS arrived on the scene in 2014, it destroyed the Iraqi pipeline, at which point Baghdad had no choice but to export Kirkuk’s oil through the KRG’s pipeline. [fn]Crisis Group interview, Sunni Turkmen politician, Kirkuk, March 2019.Hide Footnote. PUK Asayish offices are still functioning, engaging in information sharing and referring cases under investigation to federal security forces. Crisis Group interview, PUK Asayish official, Kirkuk, September 2019. “UN Special Representative Condemns Assassination of Mohammed Khalil, Provincial Council Member of Kirkuk”, UNAMI, 2 December 2015. Les milices chiites constituent sans doute aujourd’hui une menace encore plus sérieuse pour la stabilité de l’Irak que le terrorisme jihadiste ou le séparatisme kurde. Il y a quelques éléments laissant penser que l’Irak pourrait être pris dans un maelström régional de lutte de pouvoir entre sunnites et chiites. Les Kurdes du PDK de Barzani regardent vers l’occident tandis que les Kurdes de l’UPK alliés aux Kurdes du PKK turc appartiennent à l بدأت أحدث أزمة بشأن المناطق المتنازع عليها في حزيران/يونيو 2014، عندما دخل تنظيم الدولة الإسلامية إلى محافظة كركوك، ووصل إلى العاصمة التي تحمل اسمها. Although these bodies still exist, they have made no progress since the 2007 deadline. Hawija was a staging ground for the spreading insurgency that fed the sectarian war of 2005-2008. La guerre a également fait des centaines de milliers de victimes et déstabilisé l’Etat. [fn]All army divisions fall under the command of the defence ministry, which has had successive Sunni Arab ministers since 2003, based on Iraq’s informal system of allocating government positions by ethno-sectarian affiliation (muhasasa).Hide Footnote  The CTS, an elite force tied to the prime minister as commander-in-chief of the armed forces and supervised by the National Security Council, was deployed as the front-line fighting force against ISIS in Hawija in 2017. With a wider geographic remit, the Kurdish parties’ security police, the Asayish, was able to expand its traditional tasks by helping the peshmerga with intelligence gathering and local police with law enforcement, for example by making arrests and court referrals. This goal is championed by the KDP’s security-oriented side, represented by the former chancellor and current prime minister, Masrour Barzani, in contrast to his economy-oriented cousin, Nechirvan. [fn]Crisis Group Middle East Report N°26, Iraq’s Kurds: Toward an Historic Compromise?, 8 April 2004. Given the Kurds’ longstanding claims to Kirkuk and their history of conflictual relations with successive post-2003 federal governments, the current situation is bound to create persistent tension that may fuel new cycles of inter-ethnic conflict. [fn]Adnan Abu Zeed, “Back to the future on US-Iraq strategic dialogue”, Al-Monitor, 23 April 2020.Hide Footnote. See Crisis Group Middle East Report N°103. Crisis Group interview, international NGO researcher, Erbil, July 2019.Hide Footnote. [fn]The three main positions are the governor, head of the provincial council (speaker) and deputy governor. The commander of the 14th federal police division was later replaced, but security coordination reportedly did not improve. The governorate administration has allocated federal and international aid funds for reconstruction predominantly to Arab contractors. Crisis Group interviews, Arab and Turkmen representatives at UNAMI-led talks, Baghdad, July 2019. To break the impasse, the PUK pursued a deal with Arab and Turkmen politicians without the KDP, but both communities’ leaders said no. Arab and Turkmen leaders said they would accept such a force only if Baghdad were supervising it. The force would have a policing mandate with military capacity in rural areas and along inter-city roads, thus closing the gap between military control at the governorate’s boundaries and law enforcement in the cities. كركوك/بغداد/أربيل/بروكسل، 15 حزيران/يونيو 2020. “New budget hikes spending, including windfall for KRG”. In February 2019, Prime Minister Adel Abdul-Mahdi shifted the head of the command from the CTS to the special forces 61st brigade and appointed Lieutenant General Saad Harbiye as overall commander. L’Irak a récemment accueilli plus d’une série de dialogues entre l’Arabie saoudite et l’Iran, a annoncé mercredi le président du pays, Barham Salih. Crisis Group interviews, landowners, shopkeepers, businessmen and government employees, Kirkuk, March and July 2019. The referendum sparked a reaction from Baghdad. It should deploy the army in the governorate instead of the federal police and Hashd, while agreeing on a coordination mechanism with the peshmerga. Crisis Group interview, international NGO representative, Erbil, September 2019. [fn]Crisis Group interviews, local security officials, truck driver, tribal leaders, Kirkuk, Daqouq and Hawija, March and July 2019.Hide Footnote  A Shiite Turkmen Hashd commander, who said he had run into bogus Hashd checkpoints himself, claimed that individuals and groups were freelancing in illegal activity. The 3rd turned out to be larger and more professional force, which was not involved in harassing the local population and worked hard at improving security coordination with other forces deployed in the area. Ici, nous sommes toujours dans une succession d’événements dont on ne voit pas la fin. After mass protests erupted across Iraq, parliament voted on 28 October 2019 to dissolve all provincial councils, which means that the bodies choosing governors do not presently exist. Soit quinze ans de revenus pétroliers. Espérant tirer profit de l'instabilité politique postrévolutionnaire régnant en Iran, l'Irak attaque sans avertissement formel en bombardant des terrains This force would replace external security forces that answer to different political actors. He said he tolerates no such behaviour within his ranks. [fn]The KDP and PUK’s external alliances – and dependencies – have traditionally been split between Turkey and Iran, respectively, due primarily to geographical proximity. Hashd commanders play dual military and civilian roles, also conducting political and social work. Kirkuk’s small Shiite Turkmen community is linked politically to parties that form part of the ruling order in Baghdad.Hide Footnote, Arab and Turkmen representatives in Kirkuk, especially Sunnis, are apprehensive about future plans regarding the peshmerga presence, not least because they have been excluded from Baghdad-Erbil negotiations. Yet the Asayish was feared, especially by Arabs and Turkmen, who accused it of abusing its powers by harassing civilians and carrying out unlawful detentions. Adnan Abu Zeed, “Back to the future on US-Iraq strategic dialogue”, The International Coalition to Defeat ISIS was established in October 2014, with over 30 partners in Iraq, including NATO and EU countries. Crisis Group interview, U.S.-led coalition forces commander, Kirkuk, September 2019. We follow our command. In February 2019, the government established a high-level committee including federal and regional officials to review security gaps in the disputed territories. Le numéro de RCS de cette affaire est le 802992461. The two governments had already taken steps toward rapprochement while Nechirvan Barzani was still KRG prime minister, resulting in an understanding about Baghdad’s 2019 budget allocation to the KRG. Ici vous trouvez la solution exacte à CodyCross Au Sud De L'irak Elle Devient Saoudite pour continuer dans le paquet Parc D Attraction Groupe 201 Grille 5. [fn]Crisis Group interviews, Arab tribal leader, mayor of Hawija, shop owners, local police commander, Hawija, March 2019.Hide Footnote, Corruption, which is systemic in Iraqi institutions, is likewise rife amid the competing security forces – all lacking strong command and control – in Kirkuk. وبلغت التوترات أوجها في تشرين الأول/أكتوبر 2017، بعد أن أجرت حكومة إقليم كردستان استفتاء لم يقتصر على إقليم كردستان بل شمل أيضاً المناطق المتنازع عليها، والتي يقطنها أكراد، وعرب، وتركمان وأقليات أقل عدداً. [fn]Crisis Group interviews, PUK and KDP officials, Erbil and Kirkuk, July 2019.Hide Footnote, When the federal government saw major players, such as the U.S., EU, Iran and Turkey, support its rejection of the referendum, it used the final stage of the campaign to defeat ISIS as an opportunity to reverse Kurdish control over Kirkuk. In some cases, family members of ISIS fighters have been allowed to return but remain under surveillance. The Baathist regime, which came to power in 1968, imposed a system that repressed the non-Arab population. The Barzanis are Iraqi Kurdistan’s singular ruling family, especially after the death of PUK leader Talabani, coincidentally also in October 2017. Kirkuk/Baghdad/Erbil/Brussels, 15 June 2020. The rotation system, by which each community would hold the respective positions for two-year periods, has been suggested in successive UNAMI-led negotiations over the years, but it invariably meets with stiff resistance from Kurdish politicians. One concerns reciprocity and sequencing. Si l’invasion de l’Irak par les Etats-Unis avait bien comme objectif le contrôle du pétrole, ainsi que le confirment des documents récemment déclassifiés (lire « Echec d’une guerre pour le pétrole »), elle se solde par un échec cuisant. The Kurds found themselves lacking a force representing them in a governorate in which they were the largest ethnic group and to which they attribute high political value. Turkmen and Arab provincial council members were excluded from the governorate security committee, and Arabs and Turkmen were kept out of governorate civil service positions that had been allocated to them under previous power-sharing agreements. [fn]Crisis Group interview, KDP official, Erbil 2019.Hide Footnote  A former PUK politician from Kirkuk spoke of an additional challenge: the party has approached several potential candidates who have professed a lack of interest in the job. Le silence assourdissant. “KRG: Kurdish Forces Ejecting Arabs in Kirkuk”, Human Rights Watch, 3 November 2016. Arab and Turkmen leaders are strongly opposed to the old joint security mechanism, which they say relied too much on the peshmerga and enabled the Kurdish parties to establish a monopoly over security when the Iraqi army abandoned its positions in 2014. Crisis Group email communication, Kirkuk Asayish liaison officer, 23 July 2020. Crisis Group interview, shop owner, Kirkuk, July 2019. Security officials who participated in this committee explained that it worked well as long as U.S. military officers supervised it, but that cooperation started to wane after the 2011 U.S. troop withdrawal and, subsequently, the deterioration in security due to Prime Minister Maliki’s harsh response to popular protests in Sunni Arab areas. Crisis Group interview, international NGO researcher, Erbil, July 2019. According to a Crisis Group analyst: ISIS's latest attacks are still being carried out with roughly the same level of technical complexity [as in 2013-2014], by small guerrilla units operating mostly in rugged terrain running from Nineveh through Diyala, including territories disputed between Baghdad and the Kurdistan region. “The Campaign for Mosul, ISIS Counterattacks in Kirkuk”, Institute for the Study of War, 21 October 2016. Its training and structure should benefit from international support and could be folded into existing discussions of future training programs for Iraqi forces. Crisis Group interview, adviser to the president, Baghdad, December 2019. It is mainly the council members from the KDP and Kurdistan Islamic Union who have yet to return to the governorate. Kirkuk is attractive – and not just for its hydrocarbon-based economy’s growth potential. To accomplish this task, the federal government and KRG will need to work together, taking local voices into account, and benefitting from international support, in a comprehensive effort. In many cases, ISIS members are able to infiltrate areas through family ties. Les partisans du retrait des troupes obligent le Parti républicain à des manœuvres défensives au Congrès, où le combat devient féroce. Commanders of the two forces averted direct clashes through communication and coordination, as well as confidence-building measures. [fn]Crisis Group interview, federal judge, Baghdad, July 2019.Hide Footnote, Various Hashd factions also have allegedly established illicit revenue-generating activities, such as levying fees on gas stations and truck drivers at checkpoints. Crisis Group interview, U.S.-led coalition forces commander, Kirkuk, March 2019. Crisis Group interview, enlisted KDP member of the Asayish, Kirkuk, September 2019. Moreover, the KRG’s peshmerga affairs ministry ought to deploy only mixed units under its own command, rather than party-affiliated units such as the PUK’s 70th and KDP’s 80th brigade, to build trust in Kirkuk. This notion poses a challenge for the force’s structure that has yet to be resolved: should ethnically homogenous areas be patrolled only by units made up of co-ethnics, while mixed areas, such as Dibis, Daqouq and parts of Kirkuk, require mixed units? Option 1: Reviving Joint Security Management. This governance and security structure has stayed in place since that date, with federal forces rotating in and out on a regular basis. Crisis Group interview, Turkmen MP present at the UNAMI-led talks, Baghdad, July 2019. Instead, he said, the brigade relies on local financial and weapons support. A smaller group cannot return due to suspected affiliation with ISIS, based on a local vetting system. وحده ترتيب كذاك سيضمن التعايش السلمي وسيساعد على منع عودة تنظيم الدولة الإسلامية إلى الظهور. It also has been at the heart of competition between successive federal governments and the Kurdish national movement. Crisis Group, former PUK politician, Suleimaniya, September 2019. The U.S. could back this effort through its leadership of the International Coalition to Defeat ISIS, in which capacity it has been present in Iraq since 2014. Security officials explain that the distance between deployed forces ranges from 1 to 5km.
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